Sensex, Nifty at historic highs | Experts suggest top 10 trading ideas for next 3-4 weeks

Sensex, Nifty at historic highs | Experts suggest top 10 trading ideas for next 3-4 weeks

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The bulls are roaring, helping the benchmark indices to hit historic highs and maintain the uptrend for the fifth consecutive week as of September 24.

The BSE Sensex decisively surpassed the 60,000 mark and the Nifty 50 drew closer to 18,000. However, a similar momentum was absent in the broader markets, as the BSE MidCap Index gained 0.59 percent and the SmallCap Index rose 0.06 percent.

Both the benchmark indices closed at a record. The BSE Sensex jumped 1,032.58 points, or 1.75 percent, to 60,048.47 during the week and the Nifty 50 climbed 268.05 points, or 1.52 percent, to 17,853.20.

Given the significant rally over the past one month, experts suggest that investors book timely profits and avoid aggressive buying. According to them, the next resistance on the Nifty 50 is expected at 18,000, with support at 17,600.

“Our markets had a remarkable comeback in the last four sessions as we not only managed to recover from lows but also went on to clock fresh highs,” said Sameet Chavan, chief analyst – technical and derivatives, at Angel Broking. “We have clearly outperformed global peers because despite a relief move in last two days, they are still trading well below their highs.”

He said the recovery beyond 17,600 was certainly surprising but the market was superior.

“Ideally, after the market surpassed previous highs, our cautious stance should have been negated, but there are a few time-wise projections as well as negative divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI)-smoothened oscillator, clearly holding us back,” he said.

As far as levels are concerned, every 100 points from here can be seen as an immediate resistance, i.e., 17,900-18,000. On the flipside, 17,700-17,650 are to be seen as key supports, Chavan said.

He advised traders to continue with a stock-specific approach but keep booking timely profits and avoid carrying aggressive overnight bets. Meanwhile, all eyes are on the global markets and on how the banking index, which could probably decide the next path of action for the markets, he said.

Sameet Chavan, chief analyst - technical and derivatives at Angel Broking

Here are 10 trading ideas by experts for the next 3-4 weeks. Returns are based on September 24 closing prices:

Blue Star: Buy | CMP: Rs 897.85 | Stop Loss: Rs 853 | Target: Rs 960 | Return: 6.9 percent

TThis stock had been consolidating for five to six months without any real momentum. However, the price suddenly took off after surpassing its sturdy wall of Rs 890. This move was accompanied with sizable volumes, providing credence to the move.

Pricewise, the daily chart now exhibits a bullish cup and handle pattern and we expect a decent move in this stock in the forthcoming week.

We recommend buying on a decline towards Rs 890-880 for a short-term target of Rs 960. The stop-loss can be placed at Rs 853.

ONGC: Buy | CMP: Rs 136.10 | Stop Loss: Rs 129.80 | Target: Rs 149 | Return: 9.5 percent

This Maharatna company failed to live up to expectations for the past seven years. Even in the ongoing bull run, it did not participate much. But now, with crude oil prices trading at a three-year high, ONGC is showing some strength.

Nagaraj Shetti, technical research analyst at HDFC Securities

Last week, ONGC shares surpassed the key 200-day simple moving average on the weekly timeframe chart for the first time since May 2019. In addition, the average directional index (14) indicator has started displaying an upward trajectory. One can look to buy this stock for a near-term target of Rs 149. The stop-loss can be placed at Rs 129.80.

National Fertilizers: Buy | CMP: Rs 59.85 | Stop Loss: Rs 55 | Target: Rs 67 | Return: 11.9 percent

After moving in a narrow high-low range for the past few weeks as per the weekly timeframe chart, the fertilizer stock showed an upside breakout at Rs 58.50 on September 24. The larger degree higher tops and bottoms are intact and the present upward move could be in line with the expected new higher top formation.

The stock price is currently placed above the hurdle of the 10- and 20-week exponential moving average at about Rs 59. Hence, a sustainable move above this area could open a sharp upside momentum in the stock price. Buying can be initiated in NFL at Rs 60, add more on dips to Rs 57, wait for the upside target of Rs 67 in the next three to four weeks, and place a stop-loss of Rs 55.

The Phoenix Mills: Buy | CMP: Rs 945.50 | Stop Loss: Rs 880 | Target: Rs 1,060 | Return: 12.1 percent

This realty stock witnessed a sharp upside breakout of the larger consolidation pattern on the weekly timeframe chart at Rs 900 and closed higher. The formation of consistent higher bottoms, as per the weekly timeframe chart, signals the intact medium-term uptrend in the price. Volumes expanded during the upside breakout and the weekly 14 period RSI shows positive indication.

One may look to buy The Phoenix Mills at the current market price, add more on dips to Rs 910 and wait for the target of Rs 1,060 in the next three to four weeks. Place a stop-loss of Rs 880.

Shrikant Chouhan, head of equity research (retail) at Kotak Securities

Mahindra & Mahindra: Buy | CMP: 779.45 | Stop Loss: Rs 750 | Target: Rs 850 | Return: 9.1 percent

The auto index made a strong comeback in the previous week after hitting the 200-day SMA support level. M&M made an exceptional recovery after hitting the lower boundary of the current trading range of Rs 740-Rs 850.

Technically, it seems the stock has formed a higher bottom at Rs 740 and is heading for the upward boundary, which is at Rs 850, with major resistance at Rs 790, where it has the hurdle of the 200-day SMA. Buy at current levels and add more on dips with a final stop-loss at Rs 750.

LIC Housing Finance: Buy | CMP: Rs 429.25 | Stop Loss: Rs 420 | Target: Rs 470 | Return: 9.5 percent

LIC Housing has decisively crossed the swing high at Rs 429 with a rise in volumes. After two months, the stock closed above the 200-day SMA, which is positive for the medium term. Reality stocks are rallying and that would help housing finance companies in the near term.

Sun Pharma: Buy | CMP: Rs 770.45 | Stop Loss: Rs 730 | Target: Rs 870 | Return: 12.9 percent

Technically, the stock is forming a symmetrical triangle. It has a bullish consolidation after rallying to Rs 804 from Rs 650. It is the biggest outperforming stock in the pharma basket and should be bought at current levels and more on dips to about Rs 750.

Protect long positions with a final stop loss at Rs 730. On the higher side, Rs 800 and Rs 830 would be major hurdles.

Ashis Biswas, head of technical research at CapitalVia Global Research

HDFC Bank: Buy | CMP: Rs 1,601.55 | Stop Loss: Rs 1,520 | Target: Rs 1,720 | Return: 7.4 percent

The stock has been following an uptrend. We have observed a major breakout above Rs 1,600. Indicators like the MACD (moving average convergence/divergence) and RSI suggest the momentum in the stock is likely to continue. We recommend a buy in HDFC Bank above Rs 1,605 with a target of Rs 1,720. Investors are advised to maintain a stop-loss of Rs 1,520.

HPCL: Buy | CMP: Rs 274.80 | Stop Loss: Rs 244 | Target: Rs 300 | Return: 9.2 percent

HPCL has formed an inverse head and shoulders pattern. We expect a bullish movement in the stock from the support and the momentum to continue. It has taken support at the 200 DMA line. We recommend a buy above Rs 276 with a target of Rs 300 and a stop-loss of Rs 244 for a medium-term perspective.

JB Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals: Buy | CMP: Rs 1,835.80 | Target: Rs 2,050 | Return: 11.7 percent

The stock has reversed from near the support of the 100 DMA. We have observed a breakout from the cup and handle formation above Rs 1,800. We recommend a buy above Rs 1,840 with a target of Rs 2,050 and a stop-loss of Rs 1,695 for a medium-term perspective.

The views and investment tips expressed by investment expert on Moneycontrol.com are his own and not that of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Sensex closes above 60,000 on supportive cues; realty index gains over 20%

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After a weak start to the week, the market fired ahead on the back of supportive global cues post US Fed meeting outcome. Buying in realty stocks despite the China’s Evergrande woes also boosted the sentiment. Also, strong inflows by DIIs and falling Covid-19 cases helped the Sensex to close above 60,000 for the first time.

Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, touched a fresh record high of 60,333 and 17,947.65, respectively on September 24. However, for the week BSE Sensex added 1,032.58 points (1.75 percent) to close at 60,048.47, while the Nifty50 rose 268.05 points (1.52 percent) to end at 17,853.20 levels.

The BSE Large-cap Index gained 1.3 percent supported by DLF, Indus Towers, Bajaj Finserv, Tata Motors - DVR, Larsen & Toubro Infotech and HCL Technologies. On the other hand, Adani Transmission, Tata Steel, SBI Cards & Payment Services and Bank Of Baroda, NMDC slipped 5-15 percent.

BSE Mid-cap Index added 0.59 percent. Godrej Properties, Oberoi Realty, Zee Entertainment Enterprises, Indian Hotels Company, GMR Infrastructure and Bajaj Holdings & Investment rose 11-34 percent, however, New India Assurance Company, Jindal Steel & Power, Bank Of India were among major losers.

The BSE Small-cap index ended on flat note. V2 Retail, Acrysil (India), Cantabil Retail India, Marathon Nextgen Realty, HLE Glascoat, Gujarat Themis Biosyn, Gujarat Alkalies, TGV Sraac, Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals, Zee Media Corporation, Man Infraconstruction and Chalet Hotels rising over 20 percent each. Meanwhile, BLS International Services, Hexa Tradex, Jaiprakash Associates, Balmer Lawrie Investment, AGC Networks, Gateway Distriparks, Prime Focus and Easy Trip Planners shed 10-24 percent.

On the BSE Sensex, Reliance Industries added the most in terms of market value, followed by Infosys, Bajaj Finserv, HCL Technologies in the last week. On the other hand, Tata Steel and SBI, lost the most in term of market value. (Disclaimer: MoneyControl is a part of the Network18 group. Network18 is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the sole beneficiary.)

On the sectoral front, Nifty Realty index outperform other indices with a gain of over 20 percent and Media index rose 11 percent. On the other hand, Nifty Metal and PSU Bank indices fell 3-4 percent.

In the last week, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold equities worth of Rs 8.38 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought equities worth of Rs 3,048.3 crore. However, in the month of September till now, the FIIs bought equities worth of Rs 7,137.72 crore and DIIs purchased equities worth of Rs 1,030.37 crore.

Closing Bell: Sensex, Nifty end flat amid volatility; auto stocks gain, IT drags

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September 27, 2021 / 04:24 PM IST

Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities:

Both the key benchmark indices started on a firm note but could not capitalize on the sold start as investors traded with caution and followed other Asian peers. Auto stocks were the star performers in a sluggish session and the texture of the chart suggests Maruti, Tata Motors, and Bharat Forge have formed a strong technical breakout formation and are likely to outperform in the near future.

On intraday charts, the Nifty has formed a double top formation which indicates temporary weakness. However, the short-term trend is still positive.

For day traders, the 17,900 levels could be the immediate hurdle, and below the same, the correction wave could continue up to 17,750-17,710 levels. On the flip side, if the Nifty moves above 17,900, the uptrend continuation formation is likely to continue up to 17,950-18,000 levels.