BDSwiss Marshall Gittler Talks German Elections & Impact on EU Markets

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As Europe’s leading economy prepares to elect a new Bundestag in the post-Merkel era, institutional and retail investors are already gearing up to trade the opportunities that will emerge in the forex and EU stock markets before and after the German Elections on September 26th.

Veteran fundamental analyst and Head of Investment Research at BDSwiss Marshall Gittler shares his personal insights, views, and projections on the possible impact of the German Elections on different financial markets.

Why are this year’s German Elections considered crucial for the EU markets?

Within the European Union, Germany is often seen as the de facto leader and as a key motor for policy and decision-making.

As the pivotal economy in Europe, accounting for nearly 30% of Eurozone GDP, Germany’s future strongly influences both the continent and its currency – the EUR. Under Ms Merkel’s tenure, this influence grew even further.

What makes this election season extraordinary for Europe is the departure of the incumbent chancellor after 16 years in power and the uncertainty on both the national and international level over what exactly comes next.

As Germans head to the polls on September 26 to kick off their Superwahljahr (super election year), the race for the chancellery is wide open — and in the wake of Covid-19 and the aftermath of Brexit — the world will be watching closely to find out in which direction the Germans will take their country.

Who is leading in the polls? What is the most likely coalition?

The polls show the CDU/CSU party in the lead, but with the Greens, rather than the SPD, in second place. As usual, no party is likely to be in a position to govern by itself.

The focus, therefore, is on which parties are most likely to form a coalition following the elections and how their need to compromise in a coalition might affect the policies.

The possible coalition combinations are often referred to by the pattern that their colours would make. Currently, the only two-party coalition possible seems to be the CDU/CSU and the Greens (the so-called “black/green” coalition).

We believe this is the most likely outcome of the election at the moment. In terms of who will be Merkel’s successor, Annalena Baerbock (co-leader of the Greens since 2018) and Armin Laschet (leader of the Christian Democratic Union and governor of North Rhine-Westphalia) are the two most likely candidates.

What are the main campaign issues?

Guiding Germany out of the coronavirus pandemic, with a focus on reviving the economy, remains the most pressing issue on the domestic front for both leading parties.

Meanwhile, climate policies will be given a greater sense of urgency after the recent floods, while the greening of the country’s industrial sector is a key issue on the Greens’ agenda.

Of course, both campaigns will also focus on a familiar stew of issues, including digitization, foreign policy, social equality, national security, migration, and EU politics.

What are the most probable scenarios when it comes to future policies and how can these impact the markets?

A CDU-Greens coalition would have broadly similar policies to the existing government, but with a stronger green agenda as the Greens would seek to extract concessions from the CDU.

This would include a steeper carbon price path, more subsidies for renewables and more public investment in decarbonisation.

On the foreign policy front, the CDU will seek continuity on its current trade policies with China and its positioning on Russia, including the Nord Stream 2 pipeline that is expected to be completed later this year and which will transport natural gas directly from Russia.

Meanwhile, the Greens are against the pipeline.

Most notably the Greens will push for the implementation of higher taxes for top income earners, making the debt brake more flexible, supporting a common EU fiscal policy and reforming the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) rules (which limit countries’ budget deficits).

While such deep reforms are unlikely to be implemented, we would expect the EUR to depreciate should the Greens secure a decisive parliamentary victory.

Will anything change regarding the reform of the financial system or management of the euro crisis?

All the major parties share a strong commitment to the EU, the transatlantic alliance, and the euro. Europe can count on the next German government to provide stable, predictable leadership.

A CDU-Greens coalition would most likely result in a reform of Germany’s fiscal rules to allow for more public investment to fight climate change and set the tone for similar policies on an EU level.

Overall, however, the mere fact that Germany’s government will be a centrist coalition means that its European and international policies will be variations of the status quo.

Due to the limits set in the German constitution, the oversight of the constitutional court, and the role of the Bundesrat (Upper House), the scope for large-scale shifts in the overall stance of domestic fiscal policy and of German guarantees for EU-wide borrowing is limited regardless of who gets into power.

Major shifts in policy are usually negotiated and agreed upon between the mainstream parties, both in the ruling coalition and in opposition. Such shifts usually reflect longer processes, not sudden policy reversals when a new government enters office.

Part of that is cultural; part is because of the need for a coalition government, which usually ensures some continuity between governments.

How will the markets be affected on a long- and short-term basis?

Bundestag elections are held around the same time in September. If we look at how the EUR/USD behaved from the beginning of August until mid-November, we see that in general, the euro has risen in the days leading up to the election, only to lose steam immediately after.

This probably reflects a typical “buy the rumour, sell the fact” reaction: investors buying EUR in anticipation that the CDU will prevail, then taking profits shortly after.

Interestingly enough, the CDU/CSU, the Greens and The Left all favour the introduction of a digital euro by the European Central Bank to guarantee means of payment.

Meanwhile, we will most likely see the German push for more eurozone fiscal stimulus being implemented via a “Germany first” investment agenda (and then have some trickling through effects for the rest of the eurozone), rather than a “euro first” push. This will likely also provide short term support for the DAX.

I believe a CDU/CSU + Greens coalition would be beneficial for the EUR in the long run. Hopes of faster growth could attract money into European stocks, while a left-leaning coalition could result in higher bond yields, which will also make the EUR more attractive.

How can traders keep up with the markets and major economic events such as the German Elections? What does BDSwiss offer in terms of market research?

Keeping current on important news is now more critical than ever. If there’s anything that the events of 2020 have taught us, it is that market opportunities can arise from the most unexpected and unlikely circumstances.

The difficult part is sorting through all of the available news to get to the updates that are most salient to your investment portfolio.

BDSwiss simplifies this process by offering targeted, timely, and actionable research and information on different asset classes and market sessions through a series of live webinars, daily analysis articles, weekly outlooks, real-time trading alerts, and of course, special reports on major market movers such as the German Elections.

This information is made available for free to everyone, even if they are not ready to invest.

As someone who has been following and analysing the markets for over 30 years and can still be surprised by the turn of events, I can tell you that when it comes to investing, strategy and knowledge are key.

Being able to draw upon the expertise of senior analysts and experienced industry professionals can give you a real strategic advantage when it comes to trading.

At BDSwiss our research and support team are also extremely responsive. It’s something I see daily during our live analysis webinars, with my co-host Frank Walbaum, where we try to simplify and answer questions from traders live.

How can traders, investors, or institutional partners benefit from reading your German Elections report?

Forewarned is forearmed! It’s essential to understand what’s been happening in the market before you start trading – especially when you are trading during a high impact event such as the German Elections.

Even if the market trades differently than you’ve anticipated, at least you have a set of expectations to measure these trends against and respond to the latest developments.

In my German Elections 2021 Market Outlook entitled “Germany’s election: What it means for Germany and Europe”, I discuss some prevailing forecasts on the key FX and stock market trends that we may expect to see in the EU markets pre- and post-election.

My analysis is based on major Bloomberg consensus estimates, which are derived using median projections statistics by over 18,000 companies, as well as galvanising the projections of dozens of economists and analysts on a global scale.

Of course, these forecasts are just market speculations and personal insights. It’s always important to remember that markets are extremely volatile and hard to predict, and as we saw in recent years, anything is possible.

About the BDSwiss Group:

BDSwiss is a leading financial services group, offering bespoke CFD trading and investment products to more than 1.5 million registered clients, in over 180 different countries.

Since its inception back in 2012, BDSwiss has been providing top-class products, a wide range of platforms, competitive pricing, and fast execution on more than 1000+ underlying instruments including Forex, Shares, Commodities, Indices, and ETFs.

BDSwiss complies with a strict regulatory framework and operates its services on a global scale under a number of different entities.

World Pool Championship: Kelly Fisher in group with Alex Kazakis as Fedor Gorst defends his title

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World Pool Championship: Kelly Fisher in group with Alex Kazakis as Fedor Gorst defends his title

Kelly Fisher will meet Alexander Kazakis and Darren Appleton in her group at the World Pool Championship in Milton Keynes

Fedor Gorst will begin his World Pool Championship defence against Estonia’s World Cup semi-finalist Mark Magi in Milton Keynes, live on Sky Sports.

Among the other standout matches for the double elimination Group Stage is recent World Pool Masters champion Alex Kazakis against women’s world champion Kelly Fisher.

Championship League Pool winner faces Italian Mosconi Cup legend Fabio Petroni, while former world champion Mika Immonen will be up against rising star Kristina Tkach.

The tournament begins on June 6 with a two-day Group Stage, with the 128 players split into 16 groups of eight players.

That will reduce the field down to 64, after which the tournament will adopt a straight knockout format.

Group matches are all race to 9, with knockout stage matches a race to 11 except the final, which is a race to 13.

Players who win their first two matches in the group stage advance to the last 64, while players who lose their first two will be eliminated.

Players with one win and one draw will play a third match with the winner advancing to the last 64 and the loser knocked out.

Fedor Gorst is the defending World Pool Championship champion

GROUP DRAW

Group A

Fedor Gorst (ROC) vs Mark Magi (EST)

Mark Gray (GBR) vs Julio Burgos (PUR)

Jeffrey De Luna (PHI) vs Dimitri Jungo (SUI)

Konrad Juszczyszyn (POL) vs Jasmin Ouschan (AUT)

Group B

Albin Ouschan (AUT) vs Fabio Petroni (ITA)

Roberto Gomez (PHI) vs TBC

Omar Al-Shaheen (KUW) vs Alain Da Costa (FRA)

Aloysuis Yapp (SGP) vs Kaiden Hunkins (USA)

Group C

Billy Thorpe (USA) vs Francisco Gatsby (CHI)

Marc Vidal (USA) vs Ivica Putnik (CRO)

Petri Makkonen (FIN) vs Benjamin Belhassen (FRA)

Mieszko Fortunski (POL) vs Marcel Price (GBR)

Group D

Thorsten Hohmann (GER) vs Tobias Bongers (GER)

Mika Immonen (FIN) vs Kristina Tkach (ROC)

Sanjin Pehlivanovic (BIH) vs Kevin Lannoye (BEL)

Ralf Souquet (GER) vs Ronald Regli (SUI)

Group E

Jayson Shaw (GBR) vs Moritz Neuhausen (GER)

Jani Siekkinen (FIN) vs Michal Gavenciak (CZE)

Ruslan Chinakhov (ROC) vs Alex Montpellier (FRA)

Marc Bijsterbosch (NED) vs Imran Majid (GBR)

Group F

Casper Matikainen (FIN) vs Elliot Sanderson (GBR)

Mark Foster (GBR) vs Jan van Lierop (NED)

Mohammad Ali Berjawi (LEB) vs Vladimir Matvienko (ROC)

Max Lechner (AUT) vs Mickey Krause (DEN)

Group G

David Alcaide (ESP) vs Andreja Klasovic (SRB)

Pijus Labutis (LTU) vs Jeremy Sossei (USA)

Robbie Capito (HKG) vs Ruben Bautista (MEX)

Denis Grabe (EST) vs Vitaliy Patsura (UKR)

Group H

Skyler Woodward (USA) vs Jaroslav Polach (SVK)

Radoslaw Babica (POL) vs Ivo Aarts (NED)

Vincent Halliday (RSA) vs DJ McGinley (CAN)

Daniel Schneider (SUI) vs So Shaw (IRI)

Group I

Shane van Boening (USA) vs Petr Urban (CZE)

Oscar Dominguez (USA) vs Roberto Bartol (CRO)

Karol Skowerski (POL) vs Jonas Souto Comino (ESP)

Hunter Lombardo (USA) vs Mats Schjetne (NOR)

Group J

Wojciech Szewczyk (POL) vs Marco Dorenburg (GER)

Richard Halliday (RSA) vs Aleksa Pecelj (SRB)

Oliver Szolnoki (HUN) vs Daniele Corrieri (ITA)

Francisco Sanchez-Ruiz (ESP) vs TBC

Group K

Eklent Kaci (ALB) vs Lukas Fracasso Verner (USA)

Stephen Holem (CAN) vs Badar Alawadhi (KUW)

Yukio Akagariyama (JPN) vs Ricky Evans (USA)

Corey Deuel (USA) vs Benji Buckley (GBR)

Group L

Darren Appleton (GBR) vs Shane Wolford (USA)

Marco Teutscher (NED) vs Christoph Reintjes (GER)

Ricardo Sini (ITA) vs Jeff Nieuwenhuyzen (AHO)

Alexander Kazakis (GRE) vs Kelly Fisher (GBR)

Group M

Niels Feijen (NED) vs Tim de Ruyter (NED)

Chris Robinson (USA) vs Yip Kin-Ling (HK)

Nick Malai (GRE) vs Veronika Ivanovskaia (GER)

Masato Yoshioka (JPN) vs Muhummed Daydat (RSA)

Group N

Mateusz Sniegocki (POL) vs Miguel Silva (POR)

Mario He (AUT) vs Philipp Stojanovic (CRO)

Jakub Koniar (SVK) vs Vania Franco (POR)

Tyler Styer (USA) vs Henrique Correia (POR)

Group O

Naoyuki Oi (JPN) vs Jennifer Barretta (USA)

Roman Hybler (CZE) vs Daniel Maciol (POL)

Donny Olson (USA) vs Bahram Lotfy (DEN)

Chris Melling (GBR) vs April Larson (USA)

Group P

Tomasz Kaplan (POL) vs Sergey Lutsker (ROC)

Chris Alexander (GBR) vs Nikos Ekonomopoulos (GRE)

Wiktor Zielinski vs Kim Laaksonen (FIN)

Joshua Filler (GER) vs Margaret Fefilova (BLR)

For those on the move, we will have the Snooker & Pool season covered via our website skysports.com/more-sports, our app for mobile devices, or our Twitter account @skysportspool for latest news and reports.

Best Sportsbook Promos & Boosts: NFL Preseason (Ranked)

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We will be chronicling the best boosts and promos on the gambling apps during football season. For a rundown on all the best signing bonuses, with easy links to create new accounts, click here.

Below you will find a ranking of the best boosts and promos currently available. If you enjoy this service, we would greatly appreciate it if you signed up through our affiliate links. Assume all bets are for $25 unless otherwise noted. Bets named on 9/3 totaled even money; total in series $-263.75. See bottom of the page for long-term outstanding futures bets.

Essentially Free Money

DraftKings: $25 on Georgia-Clemson hammer the over promo and Bucs +73 vs. Cowboys $50 -110. (This is basically about $70 for free over the next week).

PointsBet: Tom Brady to throw for 1+ yard vs. Cowboys $10 +100.

FanDuel: $10 risk-free college football bet.

September 4th

NFL Sportsbook Promos & Boosts

FanDuel

Bet $50 on a team to win the Super Bowl, get $5 per regular-season win. (Opt in; the best value is Chiefs or Bucs because they have the highest over/unders for win totals, but any pick you like is good value here).

Caesars/William Hill

Make a $100 NFL bet -200 or longer, get a free NFL jersey

Other Sportsbook Promos & Boosts

DraftKings

Georgia-Clemson hammer the over - if a single point is scored in that game, you win $25. (Opt in required from promos page).

33% college football parlay boost. (Opt in; pick: West Virginia -3, Nevada +3.5, and Texas Tech-Houston over 64 boosted from +596 to +793).

FanDuel

Georgia ML +170. (Fair value is about +140).

Yankees and Angels both to win +140. (Fair value is about +125).

$10 risk-free college football be.t (Opt in; pick: Penn State ML +198 as an emotional hedge because I’m a Badger).

Barstool

Under 50.5 points in Penn State-Wisconsin, UL-Lafayette +8.5 vs. Texas and Florida State +7.5 vs Notre Dame +675. (Fair value is about +593).

PointsBet

Most college football games have no vig and are +100.

September 3rd

NFL Sportsbook Promos & Boosts

FanDuel

Caesars/William Hill

Make a $100 NFL bet -200 or longer, get a free NFL jersey

Other Sportsbook Promos & Boosts

Caesars/William Hill

Place a full game spread bet on UNC-Va Tech, double your winnings up to $25. (pick: Va Tech +6, risk $27.50 to win $50).

FanDuel

Red Sox and Yankees both to win +200. (Fair value is about +139).

Phillies and Braves both to win +230. (Fair value is about +212).

Naomi Osaka to beat Leylah Fernandez in straight sets -125. (Fair value is about -170).

DraftKings

At least one run in the first inning of Astros-Padres +110. (Fair value is about -110).

50% weekly MLB Profit boost. (Still picking later this week).

College Football 33% parlay boost. (I’ll make a pick for this later in the week).

BetRivers

20% MLB Profit Boost (pick: Salvador Perez home run boosted from +350 to +420).

September 2nd

NFL Sportsbook Promos & Boosts

FanDuel

Other Sportsbook Promos & Boosts

FanDuel

Karolina Pliskova to win in straight sets +160. (Fair value is about +105).

Novak Djokovic-Tallon Griekspoor over 26.5 games +150. (Fair value is about +110).

Braves and Rays both to win +200. (Fair value is about +184).

DraftKings

USA to score first and win +100. (They are -248 with vig to win the game. These results are correlated enough that this feels worth it).

College Football 33% parlay boost. (I’ll make a pick for this later in the week).

Five 10% U.S. Open profit boosts.

Weekly 50% MLB Profit Boost. (Pick coming later in the week).

PointsBet

Bet $25 on a college football spread bet, get a $25 free bet back if it loses. (Opt in required; pick: The Citadel +33 +100).

College football Top 25 games have no vig and are mostly +100.

Barstool

Athletics and Giants both to win +160. (Fair value is about +139).

September 1st

NFL Sportsbook Promos & Boosts

FanDuel

Other Sportsbook Promos & Boosts

DraftKings

No run in first inning of Braves-Dodgers +115. (Opt in; fair value is about -120).

Weekly 50% MLB Profit Boost

FanDuel

Gerrit Cole to throw 8+ strikeouts and Yankees to win +135. (Cole’s over/under on strikeouts is 8.5. The Yankees are about -260 fair value to win this game. The correlation of these two outcomes makes this worth it to me).

BetRivers

20% MLB profit boost. (Pick: Yankees-Angels under 8.5 boosted from +100 to +120).

August 31st

NFL Sportsbook Promos & Boosts

FanDuel

BetRivers

Mac Jones over 21.5 Pass TDs +100. (His over/under on DraftKings is 23.5, juiced slightly to the over, so getting even money on 21.5 is a good price).

Barstool

Bears +7.5 vs. Rams will probably ultimately be boosted to +1000. (Opt into promo; $5 bet; +7.5 is the standard spread in the game).

Other Sportsbook Promos & Boosts

FanDuel

White Sox and Dodgers to win +140. (Fair value is around +106).

Dinger Tuesday: Bet $25 on a player to hit a home run, get $5 back for every home run in the game by either team.

DraftKings

50% weekly MLB Profit Boost.

Five 10% U.S. Open live wager boosts.

BetRivers

Novak Djokovic to win his first-round match in under 26.5 total games +105. (Fair value is about -102).

20% MLB Profit Boost. (Pick: Josh Donaldson home run boosted to +426 from +355).

20% U.S. Open live wager boost.

August 29th

NFL Sportsbook Promos & Boosts

FanDuel

Patriots to win vs. Giants and 36+ points scored in this game +250. (Fair value is about +200).

BetRivers/Sugarhouse

25% profit boost on an NFL futures bet. (Pick: Jameis Winston Comeback Player of the Year boosted from +1000 to +1250).

Make four $50 bets on NFL preseason, get a $25 free bet. (If you want a good amount of NFL preseason action, this is probably the best way to maximize your value; put free bets accrued on season-long futures and hope they multiply.)

PointsBet

Placing my $25 free bet from losing the MLB SGP on Saturday on Matthew Stafford MVP +1900.

Other Sportsbook Promos & Boosts

FanDuel

Risk-free $10 single-game parlay on Yankees-A’s. (Pick: Giancarlo Stanton home run, Joey Gallo home run, over 9 runs scored at +2093).

Cardinals, Phillies and Red Sox to win +400. (Fair value is about +358).

Novak Djokovic to win the U.S. Open +100. (He’s -127 on Pinnacle. This feels like greater than a coinflip to win).

BetRivers

Red Sox to record more hits than Cleveland and to win the game -112. (Red Sox fair value to win is about -145. These two results are correlated).

Barstool

Jake Paul to win by KO/TKO/DQ vs. Tyron Woodley +150. (Paul is about -180 fair value to win the fight. Given that the over/under for rounds is 3.5, it seems unlikely to go the distance. Note: if you want more exposure on this, FanDuel also has it boosted to +140).

August 28th

NFL Sportsbook Promos & Boosts

FanDuel

BetRivers/Sugarhouse

Other Sportsbook Promos & Boosts

DraftKings

Place a $20 single-game EPL parlay, get a $20 free bet if it loses. (Opt in; needs to be used today so you need to get a pick on Chelsea-Liverpool by 12:30 pm ET if you want to do this).

33% College Football Week 0 parlay boost. (Opt in; pick: Hawaii-UCLA under 66.5, New Mexico State +9.5 and UConn-Fresno State under 63.5 boosted to +813. Fair value is about +675).

UFC: Bryan Battle & Brady Hiestand both to win +310. (Fair value is about +265).

PointsBet

Place a $25 single-game parlay bet, get a $25 free bet if it loses. (Pick: Yankees-As under 8.5, As under 4.5 runs and Anthony Rizzo to hit a home run +1104).

College football spread lines have the vig taken out and are +100.

FanDuel

Denny Hamlin to finish in the top three in the Coke Zero Sugar 400 +280. (Hamlin is the favorite to win the race and is priced at +200 to finish in the top three in Kambi books, so +280 feels worthwhile).

August 27th

NFL Sportsbook Promos & Boosts

FanDuel

BetRivers/Sugarhouse

Other Sportsbook Promos & Boosts

Caesars/William Hill

Double your winnings (up to $25) on a moneyline bet on Yankees-A’s. (Pick: Yankees—risk $38.25 to win $50).

FanDuel

Phillies and White Sox both to win +170. (Fair value is about +106).

PointsBet

College Football Saturday spread lines have vig taken out and are +100.

MLB Single-Game Parlay—Bet $25, get a $25 free bet if it loses. (This isn’t totally risk-free, but it’s very good value; I’ll make my pick later this weekend).

BetRivers

Cubs-White Sox over 9.5 +140. (Fair value is about +105; might be Illinois only).

Phoenix Mercury and Seattle Storm to score over 172.5 points +110. (Fair value is about +100).

Bet $25 on a player to win the U.S. Open, get $1 for every ace he hits in the first round. (I’m not participating, but this is definitely worth it if you’re already planning on betting someone).

DraftKings

No run in the first inning of Giants-Braves +120. (Fair value is about +105).

August 26th

NFL Sportsbook Promos & Boosts

FanDuel

DraftKings

Trevor Lawrence Offensive Rookie of the Year boosted to +500. (For this you have to ignore a lot of what we’ve seen in the preseason and just put your faith that this is a good number when the market value is around +350).

BetRivers/Sugarhouse

Other Sportsbook Promos & Boosts

FanDuel

White Sox and Yankees both to win +330. (Fair value is about +292).

Max Scherzer and Yu Darvish each to throw 6+ strikeouts +170. (Direct markets not accessible for fair value, but if you priced it out as a single game parlay on FanDuel it would be about +122; given that, this feels like a good enough price to take a flier).

BetRivers

20% MLB Profit Boost. (Pick: Ty France to score a run +140 boosted to +168).

DraftKings

Chris Sale to throw 9+ strikeouts +350. (Based on the line at Pinnacle, he’s more likely than not to throw at least seven strikeouts. This is a good enough multiplier that the tail is worth it).

August 25th

NFL Sportsbook Promos & Boosts

FanDuel

DraftKings

Julio Jones over 999.5 receiving yards +140. (Opt in; this is boosted from -120 today. 4for4 player projection tool has him getting over 1,100 yards. This is effectively a question of injury risk but it’s worth it because you’re getting at worst a coin flip for +140).

BetRivers/Sugarhouse

Other Sportsbook Promos & Boosts

PointsBet

Brooks Koepka and Bryson DeChambeau both to finish inside the top 10 at the BMW Championship +1400. (Fair value is about +1179).

Bet $25 on BMW Championship winner, get a $25 free bet if the golfer doesn’t win but finishes in the top 10. (Going with the safest pick to finish top 10 at Jon Rahm +600 to win, but any pick you like is good value here. If you get the free bet put it on a mid-shot future wager).

DraftKings

Wild Card Wednesday - opt into promo, get a free MLB single-game parlay. (I got $5; pick: Brewers ML, under 7.5 runs and Christian Yelich to hit a home run +2000).

MLB 50% Weekly Profit Boost. (Used mine on 8/24).

FanDuel

Zack Wheeler to record 6+ strikeouts and Phillies to beat the Rays. (Phillies fair value to win is about -130, and Wheeler has had six or more strikeouts in seven of his last nine starts; feels worth it).

Barstool

Novak Djokovic to win the U.S. Open +100. (He is -126 on Pinnacle and -145 on Circa; this is a one-way market so it’s hard to know the true fair value, but feels like a greater chance than a coin flip to happen).

Justin Thomas to win the BMW Championship +2100. (Half-unit bet for $12.50; the market line is +1800, so this feels worth a flier).

August 24th

NFL Sportsbook Promos & Boosts

FanDuel

DraftKings

Tom Brady over 36.5 TD passes boosted to +150. (Opt in; the 4for4 player prop projection is 38.2, so getting +150 here is a good gamble).

BetRivers/Sugarhouse

Other Sportsbook Promos & Boosts

FanDuel

Blue Jays, Brewers and Cardinals to win +370. (Fair value is about +306).

No runs scored in the first inning of the Mets-Giants game +130. (Fair value is about +106).

Seattle Storm and Washington Mystics both to win +200. (Fair value is about +177).

Dinger Tuesday: Bet $25 on a player to hit a home run, get $5 back per home run from either team.

DraftKings

MLB 50% Weekly Profit Boost. (Pick: Enrique Hernandez over 1.5 total bases boosted from -105 to +142).

BetRivers/Sugarhouse

25% MLB Profit Boost. (Pick: Nationals -1.5 over Marlins, boosted from +165 to +198).

Barstool

Braves, Cardinals and Astros all to win +300. (Fair value is about +266).

Chicago Sky and Seattle Storm to win +135. (Fair value about +219).

August 22nd

NFL Sportsbook Promos & Boosts

DraftKings

Browns to score a touchdown in the first quarter vs. Giants +140. (Browns are favored by 5.5 points and the total for this game is 35. This means the Browns are projected to score about 20 points. Getting better odds than a coin flip to score a TD in a quarter feels worthwhile).

BetRivers/Sugarhouse

25% NFL Futures Profit Boost. (Pick: Sean McDermott Coach of the Year boosted from +1700 to +2125).

Other Sportsbook Promos & Boosts

FanDuel

Braves & Blue Jays both to win +170. (Fair value is about +134).

Astros, Brewers & Cardinals all to win +300. (Fair value is about +238).

$10 risk-free single-game parlay on Angels-Indians. (Pick: Over 9, Jose Suarez under 4.5 strikeouts, Shohei Ohtani home run +650),

August 20th

NFL Sportsbook Promos & Boosts

FanDuel

Both Washington Football Team and Arizona Cardinals to win +310. (Fair value is about +289).

BetRivers/Sugarhouse

Other Sportsbook Promos & Boosts

FanDuel

Yankees and Red Sox both to win +150. (Fair value is about +102).

NY Liberty to win vs Seattle Storm +400. (Fair value is about +362).

Risk-free $10 soccer single-game parlay. (Pick: Liverpool-Burnley over 2.5 goals, Liverpool ML and first half, Liverpool -5 corners +454).

DraftKings

Risk-free $10 MLB single-game parlay. (Pick: Yankees -1.5, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton to hit home runs +1000).

No run in first inning of White Sox-Rays +115. (Fair value is about +102).

Caesars

Bet on Giants-A’s, get double your winnings up to $25. (Pick: Giants -118, risk $29.50 to win $50).

August 19th

NFL Sportsbook Promos & Boosts

FanDuel

Patriots-Eagles 40+ total points at +140. (The standard over/under total is 38 so getting this much extra bump for two more points feels worth it.)

Caesars

Bet $50 on a Super Bowl future, get a $5 free bet for every regular-season win. (Pick: Bucs +650; the Bucs or Chiefs are the best picks here because they have the highest regular season over/under totals in the league and thus are most likely expected to return the highest free bet totals.)

BetRivers/Sugarhouse

Other Sportsbook Promos & Boosts

FanDuel

Rays, White Sox and Phillies all to win +270 (Fair value is about +247). Zach Wheeler to record 6+ strikeouts and Bryce Harper to record a hit vs. the Diamondbacks +130 (fair value is about +100).

DraftKings

Weekly 50% MLB Profit Boost.

A 25% profit boost on Northern Open. (This promo is here every round of the tournament.)

Barstool

Josh Donaldson and DJ Lemahieu each to get a hit in Twins-Yankees +110. (Fair value is about -110).

Rivers/Sugarhouse

Dodgers to win and record more hits than the Mets. (Dodgers are about -175 fair value to win the game. These two results are highly correlated.)

A 25% MLB Profit Boost. (Pick: Twins-Yankees first five innings -112 boosted to +108).

August 18th

NFL Sportsbook Promos & Boosts

Caesars

Bet $50 on a Super Bowl future, get a $5 free bet for every regular-season win. (Pick: Bucs +650; the Bucs or Chiefs are best picks here because they have the highest regular season over/under totals in the league and thus are most likely expected to return the highest free bet totals.)

BetRivers/Sugarhouse

Other Sportsbook Promos & Boosts

FanDuel

Mets & White Sox both win +310 (Fair value is about +282).

Jordan Spieth to shoot par or better in the first round of Northern Trust +100. (FanDuel just announced an endorsement deal with Spieth, and he is the second-most favorite to win the tournament, so this feels like it’s much better than a coin flip to win.)

DraftKings

Weekly 50% MLB Profit Boost (Pick: Starling Marte to score a run boosted from +125 to +187).

Barstool

Giants, Red Sox and Cardinals all to win +725 (Fair value is around +664).

Nelly Korda to win AIG Women’s Open +1000. (Half-unit $12.50 bet; she is favored to win the tournament at +819 on the sharp book Pinnacle, so +1000 feels like a good number to ride with.)

August 17th

NFL Sportsbook Promos & Boosts

Caesars

Bet $50 on a Super Bowl future, get $5 free bet for every regular season win. (Pick: Bucs +650; the Bucs or Chiefs are best picks here because they have the highest regular season over/under totals in league and thus are most expected to return highest free bet totals).

BetRivers/Sugarhouse

Other Sportsbook Promos & Boosts

DraftKings

Run scored in first inning of Cubs-Reds +110. (Fair value is around -126).

FanDuel

Blue Jays & Reds to win +200 (Fair value is around +149).

Dinger Tuesday: Bet $25 on a player to get a home run, get $5 back for every home run in game by either team (Picks: Paul Goldschmidt +600, Yoan Moncada +600 and Jesus Aguilar +550).

BetRivers/Sugarhouse

25% MLB Profit boost (Pick: Rays over 4.5 runs boosted from -125 to -105).

August 15th

NFL Sportsbook Promos & Boosts

BetRivers/Sugarhouse

The book also has a 25% profit boost to use on an NFL futures bet. I did Saints to win NFC South boosted from +350 to +438.

Other Sportsbook Promos & Boosts

DraftKings

Miguel Cabrera home run +600. (Half unit $12.50 bet; fair value is about +461).

FanDuel

Yankees to score first vs. White Sox +100. (Fair value is about -110).

Late update: FanDuel risk-free $10 single-game parlay on Mets-Dodgers. My pick is over eight, Dominic Smith to hit a home run and Dominic Smith to get a base hit +663.

Barstool

Phoenix Mercury, Las Vegas Aces and Minnesota Lynx all to win +170. (Fair value is about +142).

August 14th

NFL Sportsbook Promos & Boosts

BetRivers/Sugarhouse

FanDuel

Jets and 49ers both to win +215. (This is a fair value of about +209, so it’s essentially an even-money flier if you want a reason to watch).

Other Sportsbook Promos & Boosts

FanDuel

Red Sox, Astros and L.A. Dodgers all to win +300. (The fair value is about +230 so this is a very +EV bet).

DraftKings

Miguel Cabrera to hit a home run odds boost +700. (Half-unit bet for $12.50; don’t have a hard fair value on this but like the number).

August 13th

NFL Sportsbook Promos & Boosts

FanDuel

Falcons and Lions both to win +300. (Fair value is about +245)

BetRivers/Sugarhouse

Other Sportsbook Promos & Boosts

FanDuel

Risk-free soccer single-game parlay: make money back up to $10 if it loses. (This is a blind stab but it’s risk-free so I’m going Man U-Leeds draw, 2-2 correct score and Edinson Cavani anytime goalscorer for +3081)

Blake Snell to record 7+ strikeouts and Padres to win +250. (Fair value is about +182)

Athletics and Rays both to win +200. (Fair value is about +171)

Caesars

Make a bet on Dodgers-Mets, double your winnings up to $25. (I bet Dodgers ML risk $38.75; it changes the odds of the bet from -155 to +129)

DraftKings

Brentford vs. Arsenal both teams to score +130. (To access, go to promos section and opt in; fair value is about +108)

Premier League 33% boost on three-plus leg parlay. (To access, go promos section; I’m staying away from this one but it’s good value if you want to take a stab.)

DraftKings also has a sign-up special where if you deposit $5 you will receive $200 in free bets for football.

August 12th

NFL Sportsbook Promos & Boosts

BetRivers/Sugarhouse

FanDuel

Patriots to win and 37+ points scored in game (this is right around even money in fair value if you want a reason to watch the game).

DraftKings

Patriots and Steelers both to win +300 (fair value without vig is about +305, so this bet is also right around even money if you want to have something riding on the games).

A lot of people scoff at betting the NFL preseason, while there are sharps who swear there is a lot of edge. All three of these promos/boosts are more a matter of if you want to make the games more interesting to watch, especially once the starters have been pulled. DraftKings also has a sign-up offer where if you deposit $5 you get $200 in free bets.

Other Sportsbook Promos & Boosts

DraftKings

White Sox to win series vs. Yankees +100. (Fair value is about -220, so this is very high +EV)

Caesars

White Sox to win tonight vs. Yankees +100. (Fair value about -175)

BetRivers/Sugarhouse

A 20% MLB profit boost. (I boosted Shohei Ohtani home run from +350 to +420)

FanDuel

Place $25 three-plus leg single-game parlay on White Sox-Yankees Field of Dreams game, get $5 per home run up to $35. (I went high risk/reward with Andrew Heaney over 6.5 strikeouts, Lance Lynn under 7.5 strikeouts and tied game after five innings for +2406)

PointsBet

Tim Anderson to get a hit and White Sox to win +110. (Fair value is around +100)

Outstanding futures bets